Friday, September 30, 2016

Big Brother Over the Top Live Feed Spoilers and Updates for Friday 9/30/2016!!!

The new season is off to a pretty good start. We've got some interesting characters (Justin, Shelby, Cornbread) and some divisions now forming. For the first few hours everyone was friendly and got along very well and just seemed like a large cohesive group. Then the divisions started. Monte, Shane, Scott and Cornbread quickly decided to create an alliance of four. Initially they decided that Justin and Danielle, an early showmance, would be their first target. Knowing they were outnumbered by the girls they decided to recruit a few girls into their group to give them numbers that they could cut later. Alex and Whitney were quickly added with Morgan and possibly Shelby also in tow. Alex and Whitney wanted Jason out.

The target soon shifted to the late night crew of Jason, Kryssie and Neeley who were all getting very close. Jason scares them knowing that the fans vote for the winner and they don't want a pre-existing fan favorite in the end, so they now feel that Jason has to go.

The first HOH comp soon started. The house guests were all locked outside then ordered into the living room where they found a bottle of blue fizzy drink with a note stating "Only One May Drink" then in small print "Expect the unexpected." They sat around waiting for Julie to appear to tell them something, but nothing happened. Someone dared Shane to drink the drink so he gulped it down which triggered an alarm and Shane was informed that he was infected and to report to the DR. He emerged a bit later wearing a new t-shirt with a red bug on it and a necklace that was a giant bug. He then informed the house that he was infected and would pass the bug to another house guest when the alarm next sounded. That house guest would repeat the action the next time the alarm sounded. House guests couldn't refuse the bug. This would continue for 24 hours until only one house guest remained uninfected and that house guest would then become the HOH.

Scheming then ensued to try and make sure the bug got passed to the right people. As of this minute the only ones not infected are Monte, Alex, Whitney, Cornbread and Jason. With Jason the target of the other four, he will almost certainly become infected soon. Jason's side of the house (Neeley, Kryssie, Justin, maybe Danielle, maybe Shelby, maybe Scott who is sitting with the rest of them silently listening as they scheme.) I think Scott is just gathering intelligence he can report back to his alliance, and Shelby may be doing the same, but she seems really into this group now.

Jason considers Whitney, Alex and Morgan to be the "plastics." Scott may be trying to play both sides. He's offering some advice to Jason and his alliance on how to swing Alex to their side. Shelby's planning to have a girls' day with Morgan, Danielle and Whitney to try and keep them on her side and maybe pull in Alex. There's lots and lots of scheming going on. Jason's group wants the "abs" (Monte/Shane) gone first. They think they may be able to pull it off. Jason's alliance just decided on calling their alliance the "OTT Jamboree." (At this moment we've got Jason, Kryssie, Shelby, Scott and Justin  talking together and calling themselves that.) They think they have to sneak off to bed separately so no one knows they were all together. Cornbread just walked out on his way back from the bathroom, so their meeting won't be a secret any longer.

It's pretty neat watching all of the alliance building that goes on in this first week. We've heard some very interesting stories, mostly from Justin who's got some whoppers. Shelby has largely dumped the dumb "Valley Girl" act she was doing on first entering the house and is pretty entertaining. 

At 10:30 PM tonight we get the first live DR sessions so we'll hopefully know more about what each house guest is truly thinking. (We saw some of their "normal"  DR's in the 10 PM update last night.) Is Scott playing both sides and trying to stay in the middle? Is Shelby doing the same? Where do true loyalties lie at this early stage of the game? It's been a pretty fun season so far with a pretty good cast. I think BB may be onto something here with the new format.

Tuesday, September 27, 2016

The Truth About Solar Power

Unless you've been living under a rock, by now you've no doubt heard of Hillary Clinton's plan for five hundred million solar panels to be installed by the year 2020.What they want you to believe is that these panels will help the environment and make us less dependent on fossil fuels. In reality it's all a lie.

How is it a lie? There's a two word answer to that and the two words are: spinning reserve. Spinning reserve is extra power capacity that's readily available to make up for a sudden increase in demand. It is required by law to be available and without changing the law, the need for spinning reserve means that for every watt of electricity generated by a solar panel, there's a conventional oil, coal, gas, nuclear power plant still churning away in the background running just as it would be if it was generating the power itself, to supply that spinning reserve.

The best analogy is that it's like you buy an electric car to save the environment but since you don't trust the electric car you have a gas powered car follow you everywhere to be sure you have reliable transportation. You point to your electric car and say, "Look at me! I'm driving an electric car and saving the planet!" But since you're being followed everywhere by a gas powered car you're actually achieving nothing.

Both solar and wind power suffer from the same issue. They can't be relied upon 24/7 as a power source and there's no real world way to have spinning reserve with just them. There's been some talk of building massive lithium ion battery warehouses to store excess solar/wind power to use as spinning reserve, but it's impractical due to costs and design issues. Lithium ion battery design is one of those things that's 95% science/engineering and 5% voodoo. That's why companies like Boeing, Samsung, Sony and many others have had issues with their lithium ion batteries catching fire/exploding. A massive warehouse full of lithium ion batteries is a disaster just waiting to happen.

The only practical way to have spinning reserve at this time is with a conventional power plant. "Well fine, we'll just leave it sitting there idle until we need it then fire it up and get it rolling." I'm afraid that's not the way it works. Power plants create power by boiling massive quantities of water and turning it into steam that's then directed through turbines to generate power. They use coal, oil, natural gas, or the heat generated by nuclear fission to provide the energy necessary to boil the water and flash it to steam. Heating large quantities of water to the boiling point takes time, time that you don't have to go from completely idle to having it ready as spinning reserve. For a power plant to be used as spinning reserve, it has to be up and operating just as if it were generating the power being generated by the solar panels. That means that for Hillary Clinton's five hundred million solar panels there will be conventional power plants chugging away somewhere in the background burning as much fuel as if they were generating the power that the solar panels are generating.

"But that sounds like the five hundred million solar panels would be a complete waste?" And that's correct. In terms of the environmental impact and their efficiency as a component of the electrical grid, solar panels and wind mills are essentially nothing more than large, expensive lawn ornaments because of the need for spinning reserve. As long as we require spinning reserve, there's no point in using solar panels. Now, some homeowners and businesses can benefit from using solar panels. It can reduce their electricity costs, but as a component of the grid and in terms of environmental impact, there is no benefit. It is truly like we're driving an electric car but being followed everywhere by a gas guzzler.

"But we've spent billions, if not trillions on solar and wind power?" And every dime of it has been wasted. And our elected officials who have spent all that money know it's all wasted. They aren't stupid. Hillary Clinton knows that installing five hundred million solar panels will do nothing to improve the environment or reduce our use of fossil fuels. Conventional power plants will still be running just as if they were generating that power. So why is she promoting it? To show that she's doing something. The fact that the panels actually achieve nothing is immaterial. It's the illusion of doing something that counts to politicians.

The fact that their "doing something" achieves nothing and costs us billions/trillions is immaterial to them. It's all Monopoly money to them. They get to stand in front of a field of solar panels and say, "Look at me! I'm solving global warming!" In reality they're just wasting money. And the waste of money doesn't stop with the purchase/installation of these items. Once bought and installed, they need maintenance and replacement.

Well then, let's get rid of the laws requiring spinning reserve. That'll solve the problem. And that's great if you don't mind living with blackouts/brownouts for minutes or hours, but most people do mind it. They want power available 24/7 with little or no interruption. Ending spinning reserve will lead to routine brownouts/blackouts.

Is there a solution then? The only practical way to generate power on a reliable basis on a large scale without the use of fossil fuels is nuclear power. Nothing else does the job. Part of the problem with nuclear power is the plants tend to be far from populated areas where the power is needed. Much of the power generated is lost to resistance over the miles and miles of power lines needed to get the power from the plants to the public. I personally like the idea of small, natural gas fired power plants placed in neighborhoods and communities where the power is needed. Natural gas is readily available, can be burned relatively cleanly, and by putting power plants in each neighborhood and community you limit the energy lost in transit. I suspect you could put a neighborhood sized power plant inside a typical shipping container with little to no trouble. With each small power plant slightly over-sized, neighboring plants could make up for the loss of any one plant until it could be repaired/replaced. The spinning reserve would be built into those neighboring plants.

By putting small, efficient, gas powered power plants in each neighborhood we'd solve many of the problems we have now. We wouldn't need to spend billions making a "smart" grid. We'd make the most efficient use of the power generated with less loss to resistance over long power lines. It would limit the likelihood of  widespread outages as each neighborhood would be independent. It would likely be the easiest, cheapest and most effective way to improve the current situation.

But what about all of those companies that are offering to put solar panels on my roof for little to no cost? Those companies are largely participating in what looks like a giant pyramid/Ponzi type scheme. When you start researching them you'll find that they're typically leasing the panels to you and you're paying rent to them. In some cases these companies then sell the leasing contract to another company to generate cash to buy more panels to lease to more homeowners and then they sell those leases and the pattern repeats. Finding a way these companies make money over the long term gets challenging. They largely depend on the federal government giving them subsidies which means our tax dollars are going to them. What happens when the government subsidies end? Those companies likely won't survive. Those solar panels and the accompanying equipment of theirs that you're renting then may have to be returned/repossessed and that could get messy.

Remember that if something sounds too good to be true, it typically is too good to be true. Solar power sounds too good to be true. It is. We're just paying a lot more to achieve nothing, while the politicians get to look like they're doing something.






Friday, September 23, 2016

A Common Sense Solution to the Bringing Back Manufacturing Jobs

I think there's an easy solution to the problem of bringing back American manufacturing jobs, but before we get into the solution, it pays to understand the problem. Why have manufacturing jobs left the country? The brief answer is to survive. Let's say you own the Acme Widget Manufacturing Company. You have two rival firms also making widgets, but all three of you make comparable widgets in the States and sell them for comparable prices. Let's say a dollar per widget. You're happy with your profit. Your stockholders are happy. The workers are happy.Your competing firms are more or less happy.

One of your rival firms then moves their manufacturing to Mexico where their labor costs fall dramatically allowing them to undercut the selling price of your widgets. They now price their widgets at $.95. Their sales now increase and the two domestic widget manufacturers lose market share. The Mexican made company sees their stock prices increase. Their shareholders are happy. The CEO is praised by the board and gets a raise and a new contract. They're selling widgets like they're going out of style and your company is losing sales. 

Your other rival, upset at losing market share and struggling to survive,  finds a Chinese maker who will make their widgets for even less than the Mexican made widgets and shifts their manufacturing there. They're now able to undercut the Mexican made widgets while increasing their profits and market share. Their widgets now sell for $.94. Their stockholders are thrilled and the stock price increases. 

Now, your sales have fallen dramatically as your rivals have been able to undercut your prices. You've looked at every option and you just can't sell your widgets for $.94 and keep your manufacturing in the States. The math just doesn't work. There's no increase in efficiency, reduction in benefits, or option left for you other than to see continually decreasing sales that will ultimately force you out of business. So, what do you do? You try to find a cheaper way yet to make widgets and what do you know? There's an Indian firm that's willing to make your widgets and undercut the Chinese maker's price.

You apologize to your workers and move your manufacturing to India and now your widgets sell for $.93 and you're suddenly back on top of the widget market and your stockholders are happy and you keep your position and get a raise. You feel sorry for your workers, but in order for your company to survive, you had to make the move. You really had no choice. Your workers would have been out of a job either way, but this way the company lives.

Labor costs overseas are so radically different that there are parts of the world where you can hire a worker for a week for what you'd pay for an hour here. With modern shipping, using shipping containers and ships that carry hundreds/thousands of containers, the cost per smaller item to ship these days is minimal, so that makes international shipping very cost effective for smaller items. Things like major appliances and cars take up a lot of space on a ship however which is why many of them are still made domestically. On larger, heavier items the savings in labor gets eaten up by the increased shipping cost per item so manufacturers stay here. There's no cost savings by making them overseas, so they make them here.

In general in business if you want to survive you have to be comparable in price to your competing products. If your product and a rival product are comparable in quality/features but your competitor's product is cheaper, it will likely sell more than your product.

So that's a general outline of what the problem is. Companies generally leave the US to survive or gain a competitive edge. In order to keep companies here, we have to find a way to let domestic manufacturers survive and/or have a competitive edge. Politicians talk about decreasing regulation, lowering the corporate tax rate,  and other stuff, but I suspect none of those would have a major impact because they have minimal effect on the consumer cost of the product and that's largely why manufacturers leave, to stay price competitive with those manufacturing outside the US.

I have this quirky belief that refunding the sales tax to the manufacturers on domestic made items is the ideal solution. The national average sales tax is around seven percent these days. 
But, you ask, is a seven percent difference enough to offset the increased labor costs? 

You have to remember that the widget sold for a dollar has markups added on all along the way. The cost to the widget manufacturer might be $.25 to manufacture it. The wholesaler then marks it up to $.50 to make up the cost of warehousing/shipping/distributing the item. The retailer then marks it up to $1.00 to cover their operating costs. Now if the manufacturer somehow gets back that $.07 in sales tax and applies that to the manufacturing cost, the real world cost to them to manufacture each widget now drops to $.18. That's a big difference. 

If you assume the same 100% markup at the wholesale/retail levels that domestically made widget could then sell for $.72 ($.18 to manufacture, $.32 wholesale and $.72 retail.) With your rival, foreign made widgets selling at $.94 and $.95 your market share will jump. Even if the wholesaler and retailer kept their profits at $.25 and $.50 the price would only be $.93 still below the foreign made widgets. What will your rivals do to compete? They'll have to move back here and bring their manufacturing back here to compete. With all of them back here competing on even ground there's no advantage to move manufacturing overseas and everyone wins. 

But if your widgets are now selling for $.72 you won't be getting back that $.07 in sales tax refund and will be getting just $.05 back due to the lower price. That will increase your manufacturing costs to $.20 instead of $.18 and the retail cost will increase to around $.80 from the $.72. But this will increase your refund to $.055 and you can then lower your price a tick again to make up for the increased income and things will level out at around that point as the fluctuations become smaller and smaller.

Now, states will say, wait a minute! What about that lost sales tax revenue? We need that income! Well the reality is relatively few items are currently made completely in the US so the initial impact would be pretty minimal. Also sales tax in many/most states has a number of items that are sales tax exempt. Taking away those exemptions and applying sales tax to everything should offset any loss and encourage every manufacturer to bring jobs back here. It should be pointed out that much of the money states spend is in supporting those with low incomes. If we bring back enough jobs, we put everyone in the country back to work which would lower the costs to states (and the Federal government) dramatically.

Manufacturers will be competing for workers which will lead to increased wages/benefits. Even the disabled will be needed to fill job roles. There will be no shortage of jobs for workers. Instead of a hundred people scrambling for an entry level job, there will be dozens/hundreds of jobs available for every graduate. Things like Medicaid and Welfare will be looked at as quaint anomalies from the old days. 

As manufacturing costs (salaries/benefits) increase so will the retail price, but there's a cushion built into this model that should allow things to progress along this path for some time before it becomes more cost effective to manufacture overseas again. As manufacturers increase prices to cover their increased costs, they get back 7% of the consumer price which helps to stabilize manufacturing costs. (We'd likely see a significant drop in the price of domestically made cars and major appliances under this plan. The reported average price for a new car is $33,560 which at 7% sales tax would find the manufacturer getting back $2,349.20 in sales tax. Apply that to the cost to manufacture the cars and the price should drop pretty significantly while having no or minimal on the manufacturer's profit.)

Now there are obstacles to a plan like this. One is the Commerce Clause which would I believe prohibit this as the clause is currently interpreted. Foreign trade agreements would likely have to be voided or modified. Politicians at both the state and federal level would have to get off their butts and actually do something. 

The more liberal sorts who envision a single world government where everyone is equal would be appalled  and decry this as corporate welfare. Manufacturers would have to believe in the system. The way inflation is calculated would likely have to be adjusted as the price fluctuation from a move like this could wildly swing the inflation/deflation numbers. 

However, of the options out there, I feel this is the one that makes the most sense. Is it corporate welfare? Sure. But I think it would work and I'm not sure anything else would. It might even lower consumer costs while helping domestic manufacturers.  

Manufacturers could maintain overseas manufacturing facilities to provide the rest of the world their products, but domestic sales could all come from domestic factories under this model. There are around three hundred and twenty million Americans, so we're a pretty big market. 

It's a quirky idea to give manufacturers back the sales tax on the items they manufacture and many would object, but it makes sense to me and is the only real option I can see that seems like it would work. The radical difference in labor costs combined with cheaper shipping is nearly impossible to battle in any other way. Giving domestic manufacturers back the sales tax revenue to help offset their increased domestic manufacturing costs makes sense to me. The math seems to work. The concept seems sound. I think this is the best option available to bring back domestic manufacturing jobs. Feel free to leave comments if you agree or disagree.

Wednesday, September 21, 2016

Big Brother 18 Live Feed Spoilers and Updates for Wednesday 9/21/2016!!!

The end is here! After all the preseason speculation on who the house guests would be. The speculating if BB would be stupid enough to keep the sand in the bathroom. Then finally seeing the house guests and the returnees. Then the slow but steady thinning of the herd, we're now down to the final three and tonight one of them will be crowned the winner.

Paul and Nicole will fight it out tonight in the final part of the HOH comp and one of them will emerge victorious. If Paul wins all indications are he'll take Nicole. If Nicole wins she'll likely take James but she's still waffling about it. Is she doing that for production so they'll have waffling footage, as she's done much of the season, or is she seriously considering taking Paul? She admitted last night that she'd vote for Paul over her and that he has to know she'd be stupid to take him over James. That makes me think she'll take James and is just providing waffling footage for production, but who knows what will happen. Paul has been selling the loyalty thing hard.

Tonight we'll get all of the answers to the remaining questions. One of these three will be named the winner. My money is on whoever wins part three of the HOH comp being the winner. If Paul wins part three he should win BB. If Nicole wins and takes James (as I think she will) she should win. Though she may not win. Nicole made a lot of enemies of the jurors and backstabbing Paul at the very end could cost her Paul's and Victor's votes.

By the way, we learned last night that the jurors do a preliminary vote with the final three to see who would win in various combinations and Cody would have beaten Victoria 7-2 according to Nicole. I think that is part of the reason why she's taking James. He's her Victoria. 

Well, it's been a fun year with lots of interesting stuff going on. Now we have a whole week off before the new season starts. Big Brother Over The Top could be a lot of fun with the house and the fall holidays. I think Halloween could be especially entertaining. We should be meeting the new cast in the near future and it'll be interesting to see how, if any, they're different with a new casting guy doing the casting.

Tuesday, September 20, 2016

Big Brother 18 Live Feed Spoilers and Updates for Tuesday 9/19/2016!!!

The status quo is still in place. Paul is still likely taking Nicole and Nicole is still likely taking James depending on who wins part three of the final HOH comp. BB shook things up a bit yesterday by giving the house a peek at the new season of Big Brother Over the Top. Paul and Nicole looked horrified while James looked thrilled. James asked if he could just stay in the house. Paul and Nicole realized that the fame and glory they were anticipating enjoying for nine months will now last about six days.

All three seemed to agree that Jozea would be likely to be in the new show since he's over the top. They could be right. That's been a pretty persistent rumor since the first mention of BBOTT. They were given a framed blackboard to leave a message for the future house guests. Paul divided the board up into three sections and each then left a message for the newbies. (By the way, the frame is pretty rustic, darker wood and looks more like it fits in a cabin, which could be a good hint for the decor for the BBOTT house.)

Nothing much else is going on. They were told they had about a minute for their speech. Nicole's speech starts with day one and goes on forever. Paul's timed out his speech using the microwave as a timer. Nicole is using the lunar cycle to time hers. It does tend to go on a while. Nicole's speech could end up winning an award for creative fiction, as little of what she takes credit for was actually her doing. 

According to one of Nicole's many rehearsals, she and Corey divided the house with Corey in charge of managing the guys and Nicole took over managing the girls and between them they controlled the whole house the whole season. Bearing in mind that the first time Nicole talked to Natalie was day 59 and that conversation lasted all of about ten seconds, she didn't hold up her half of the deal very well. It is oddly fascinating to listen to Nicole ramble on. For the first two thirds of the season you'd hardly know Nicole was there. Her and Corey were that lump under the blankets in the corner bed in the Tokyo bedroom for most of the season. Listen to her though and she was in total control of the house the whole season.

Nicole's speech could be very effective if she was giving it to a naive audience. Unfortunately for her, she's giving it to people who were in the house and know what really happened. There are going to be some very confused looking jurors after Nicole finishes her speech. (Assuming she ever finishes her speech.) They know what really happened and they know that what Nicole said happened didn't happen, so it'll be interesting to see how they respond to that. Open mouthed awe? Giggles? Collapsing in laughter? Stunned silence?

Today will be the last day we get any real feeds. They'll go down very early tomorrow. BB will then set up the house for the final stage of the HOH comp. The yard will be filled with props from the comps this season for the after-show interviews. The various DR personnel will all say their goodbyes to the house guests. Rumor has it they may smuggle in hair/makeup people to assist the house guests for their final live show. Then tomorrow it all ends. I suspect first thing Thursday morning a crew will enter the house to flip it for the new season. I'd be surprised if that took more than a few days, then they may throw some new test hamsters in to check it out.

We're near the end now. Tomorrow night one of these three will be handed a check for a half million dollars. Another will get $50,000. And we'll all get a week off before the new season starts.

Monday, September 19, 2016

Big Brother 18 Live Feed Spoilers and Updates for Monday 9/19/2016!!!

Well, we now have a better idea of Paul and Nicole's plans. Paul was practicing a speech yesterday where he consistently referred to "this girl beside me" which rather strongly implies he's planning to take Nicole. Nicole practiced a speech where she referred to James, but then spent the day bashing James rather cruelly, and later told James she hadn't made up her mind yet on who to take.

James endured the bashing all day and then approached Nicole later to be sure their final two deal was still in place, but she was noncommittal. I tend to think she'll take James and is just enjoying being mean to him for some reason. (She said she'd do what Corey told her to do and Corey told her to take James.) She spent much of the day yesterday bashing the play of everyone in the house, but focusing a lot on James and Natalie. Apparently in her mind, only Nicole played the game well and everyone else was a fool to be exploited.

Of course, it's all strategic as Nicole hasn't played emotional this whole game. (Or so she says.) That seems to be her whole argument. That everything she did this year was done strategically and for her to advance in the game. (I'm not sure the jury will buy that.) She found a meat shield in Corey and hid behind (many nights under) him as the rest of the house played the game. Once she'd floated to the end, she then emerged from behind Corey, watched as he got picked off, and started planning her final two speech. The strategy worked for her, but I'm not all that impressed by it.

I'm really pulling for Paul to win it all now. He's far from my favorite player, but of the three, he's the most deserving for his game play. Nicole is really annoying me these days and I just want her gone. Having her gone with no money would be ideal, but that's unlikely unless her nonstop bashing of James and his game play gets Paul rethinking who to take to the final two.

I'm just ready for this season to be over. I'm tired of these people. I'm tired of seeing them, hearing them, and watching them. It's time to flush them out and move on.

Sunday, September 18, 2016

Big Brother 18 Live Feed Spoilers and Updates for Sunday 9/18/2016!!!

And the game goes on, and on, and on. We had a few seconds of clarity added yesterday when Nicole talking to herself, the cameras, her family, production, whoever, said she wasn't sure who to take. James would be easier to beat and Corey would kill her if she didn't take James, but then added she just didn't know what to do. Translation: She's giving production footage to make it look like she might take Paul, but she's taking James. Nicole's been very conscious of giving production waffling footage all season, but she ultimately ends up doing what she originally said she'd do.

We don't really know what Paul would do, but in all likelihood he'll take James too. James is just such an easy person to pick that you pretty much have to take him. He could still win. James thinks he's got Natalie, Michelle, Davonne, and Corey locked in, and probably Bridgette. I'm not as confident in those votes as he is, but we'll see. Expect nothing much to happen until Wednesday with the usual back and forth among the three over who's the most pathetic and has the fewest votes.

Back in the good old days when they got down to the final two and then gave the jury several hours to question the final two, the feeds were a lot better. We never got to see the questioning, but the poor final two house guests were so rattled when the feeds came back up that it made for some entertaining feed watching. You got a lot of "I thought for sure she was going to vote for me, but after those questions I'm not so sure."  "I know. I don't think they like either one of us." "Don't like us? They hate us!" "Did you get a good feel from any of them?" "Not really. Did you?" "No." They'd rehash the questions and who asked them and why they asked that question for hours and hours. It was fun to watch. What we get now is about as entertaining as watching paint dry.

What we have now are essentially two great white sharks (Paul and Nicole) circling a chubby Asian Redneck (James) on a slowly sinking boat with each shark trying to convince the other one that they're not going to eat him as they anxiously anticipate the meal. 

"Ugh! That's not an attractive meal."
"I know right? I'd rather eat a ten day old bloated sea lion corpse than him."
"A ten day old bloated sea lion corpse would likely smell better too. Is that supposed to be cologne he's wearing?"
"I know, it's horrible. I can smell blood from ten miles away, but you could smell him from Alaska."
"I don't even like to think what all of that fat would do to my arteries."
"And the hair. I'd be coughing up hairballs for days if I ate him."
"You don't suppose he has any piercings do you? I know the last time you ate that guy with piercings it almost killed you."
"And that tattoo ink they use? Ugh! Whoever makes that never tasted it. Squid ink tastes better than that."
"So, you're not eating him?"
"Me? Oh, heck no! What about you?"
"No! No! No! Absolutely not! I could get better food from a garbage barge. I'm just circling him to see what happens and what kind of a lowlife, desperate creature does eat him."
"Yeah, me too. I can't imagine what would be desperate enough to eat him. I'll just be hanging out a while to see."
"Yeah. Me too."
"Did you hear that some plump sea lions were on that island a few miles from here?"
"No, but I've had my fill of sea lions lately. I did hear that there was dead whale a few miles to the south though. You might want to check that out. I know you like whale meat."
"My doc told me to lay off the blubber for a while."
"Oh."
"Yeah."
"So, how much longer before the boat goes under?"
"It shouldn't be long now, but I suspect you have time to wander off for an hour or so. If you miss the boat sinking I'll let you know what happened."
"No, I'm good, but if there's something you need to do, I'll keep an eye on things here."
"No, I'm good."
"Yeah."
"Okay, then."
"I'll bet he's stringy."
"Yeah, you'd be picking bits of him out of your teeth for days if you ate him."
"Assuming his bones didn't break all of your teeth. Didn't you break a tooth on that swimsuit model a year or two ago?"
"Yeah, but models are all skin and bones."
"Yeah."
"So, if you need a bathroom break or anything you can wander off and I'll keep circling here."
"I'm fine. You can go if you need to."
"I'm good."
"Me too."
"Yeah."

Saturday, September 17, 2016

Sometimes fiction writers are part psychic.

For those who don't know, when I'm not posting BB updates I'm a writer. Way back in 2010 I entered a novel of mine ("Sara X") in the Amazon Breakthrough Novel Awards. That novel starts out with a female candidate for President who falls ill and is forced to withdraw from the race and she's replaced by a Senator with a big old skeleton in his closet that ultimately leads to all kinds of complications. 

As anyone who's been awake for the past week knows, Hillary Clinton, our current female candidate for President, is having a few health issues. Supposedly these are just minor hiccups and nothing serious, but whenever someone collapses on a sidewalk, it looks pretty serious, and there are countless rumors of more pressing health issues. 

A fellow writer who I met through the Amazon Breakthrough Novel Awards named Nick Harlow wrote a novel ("End Game") four years ago about a reality show celebrity who ended up running for President. We now have Donald Trump, host of "The Apprentice" running for President.

As fate would have it, our two books have now found themselves featured in a political thriller Story Bundle from now until the election. Did we somehow predict the future with our books? Do the other books in the bundle also predict the future? I would encourage everyone to buy the bundle and see for yourselves. It's really a bargain in that you get two Allen Drury novels that typically sell for $17 (or so)  on their own, and an additional eight books all for $15. 

You can pay more if you'd like. I'd recommend paying a hundred or a thousand dollars per bundle, but that's just me. People are paying as much as $250,000 to attend a diner with Hillary Clinton that won't last nearly as long as reading the books, and in all honesty wouldn't be nearly as enjoyable. You don't even have to get all dressed up in formal clothes, rent a limo, go through security checkpoints, and be frisked to read our books. (If you really want to be frisked and happen to be in the area, we'll oblige, but it's not necessary.) If an hour or two dinner consisting of mass produced food in the presence of people of somewhat questionable morals is worth $250,000, our novels written over years and honed to the nth degree must be worth that much or more. Who knows? In one of our novels, which are now appearing unnervingly prescient, may lay the answer to where the country goes from here. Information like that might be able to help you invest as little as $1000 in cattle futures and have it turn into $100,000 in just ten months time. (Ha! As if anyone could actually do that!)

Here's a link to the bundle if you're intrigued and want to learn what else our potentially psychic writers disclosed in their works. Political Thriller Story Bundle

Big Brother 18 Live Feed Spoilers and Updates for Saturday 9/17/2016!!!

Yesterday was  another day of the same old, same old. Whichever two house guests were together and out of earshot of the third vowed their undying loyalty to each other. In all likelihood none of it is true. Last night we saw the last of the pre-finale shows and it was actually an okay show.

In Friday's show we saw the start of the cat comp which was kind of cute. It was largely a wall comp with three different wall surfaces, a windowsill, a ball of yarn/rope, and a scratching post. The house guests had to follow a laser as it moved from one to the other to determine which wall they had to mount, then they had to hold on until the laser came back and led them to a new wall. We only saw a minute or two of the comp, but it looked pretty cute. (We know Paul won.)

After the show the house guests were just hanging out until nine BB time to go to bed. Then BB called for part two of the HOH comp to begin. We don't have a lot of details on that other than it involved putting pictures in frames in the right order. Nicole won that comp.

Now with Paul winning part one and Nicole winning part two, the pair are absolutely, positively taking each other to the final two, unless they're not. I personally think they'll each take James. Corey told Nicole to take James and she said she'd be stupid not to. Victor told Paul to take James and he said he'd be stupid not to. If you listen to what they're saying now, James is to be discarded, but I think that's all spin and they're both planning to take him to the final two, they just don't want the other one to know they're taking James to the final two hoping the other one will then not try so hard for part three.

So, as boring as the house been, the boring factor will now get ramped up a few more notches. With all of the comps now done but the last one on Wednesday, nothing much will happen. So, all day Saturday, Sunday, Monday, and Tuesday will be spent thumb twiddling as they wait for Wednesday. Both Paul and Nicole would be smart to let James think he wasn't being taken to the finale so he's less prepared to give a speech and make a case for why he should win, while both Paul and Nicole are sharpening their knives and looking for a nice soft spot in the other's back to plant them.

Don't expect much in the way of updates as nothing new will be happening. We have entered the dead part of the BB 18 season. By the way Dr. Will has/will be the one addressing the jury members again. At this stage of the game you have twelve people being held hostage against their will (nine jurors in a hotel, three house guests in the house) with none of them doing anything until Wednesday. In all likelihood they all know what's going to happen (give or take a jury vote or two) and there's about five minutes of actual suspense left, but we've all got to wait forever for those five minutes.

Just a brief note about BB Over the Top, the new fall version of Big Brother. There are a few people insisting this will all be filmed on a brand new set I don't think that will be the case and I've seen nothing official from BB saying that will be the case. The cost of building a second house would be pretty substantial and unless they were planning to kill off the first house and replace it with the new house, it wouldn't really make a lot of sense. Building the control room, equipping the house with the cameras, microphones and assorted technical what nots, is all pretty expensive. To do that for a seventy day run seems a bit 'over the top' to me. (Pardon the pun.) They just finished upgrading the existing cameras and control room to HD last year (or the year before.) to repeat that expense this soon seems a bit odd. I strongly suspect they'll just bring in a crew and redecorate the old house in a day or two and toss the new players back into the same old house.

Friday, September 16, 2016

Big Brother 18 Live Feed Spoilers and Updates for 9/16/2016!!!

Yesterday morning saw the final three BB house guests roused from bed to sit at the little table for their champagne breakfast and reminisce about whatever it is BB told them to reminisce about. Typically, many of the things they're told to remember are things they have no idea happened, but whatever. This is the segment where we learn what truly bad actors the house guests are. The champagne for breakfast made the house guests a bit drowsy and back to bed they went after filming that segment.

Later in the day the typical final three behavior resumed of bashing whoever's not in earshot and pledging undying loyalty to whoever is in earshot. When out of James' earshot Paul swears he won't take James to the final three if he wins since James would beat him. Nicole swears she won't take James to the final three as he never played the game and just treated it like it was the dating game. (Or was she talking about her own game? It's so confusing sometimes. That may have been the funniest thing Nicole's said all season. How does Paul not roll on the floor laughing when she says that?) They both insist James doesn't deserve to be there so they won't take him.

Despite the rhetoric, I'm pretty sure both are planning to take James simply because he doesn't deserve to be there. Do you really want to take Paul over James if you're Nicole? Paul's been on the block five or six times, won multiple comps, Paul is generally well liked by the jury. Paul has a sure jury vote in Victor. Why risk taking someone like him to jury? And if you're Paul why take Nicole? She's won some comps, has Corey strongly on her side, she's a girl in a season where the girls all vowed to vote for a girl at the end and there are five girls in the jury. She stayed loyal to Paulie and Zakiyah and they're both jurors.

James won one HOH comp and he had to make deals to win that. Deals that he then broke and one of those he broke the deal with (Bridgette) is a juror who doesn't think highly of James and has been in the jury long enough to poison James among the other jurors. Given the options, I think James is likely a sure thing to make the final two if either of the others is sane.

If by some miracle James somehow wins the last two segments, his decision on who to take is more challenging, but I suspect he'd take Nicole simply because she's not Paul.

The second stage of the HOH comp sounds like it's quite a big production. They've been working on it for some time now and they've been making a lot of noise doing it. Could they, would they, bring back another wall comp? That might be the only comp James wouldn't throw.

We have a show tonight. On tonight's show we get to see the pitiful acting abilities of our house guests as they "remember" things they have no idea happened, to set up the film clips production wants to show. We'll also get our first look at part one of the final HOH comp which had the house guests dressed up like cats and doing cat-like things that, based on what we've heard on the feeds, somehow included hanging on a rope, climbing to a sunny windowsill, and using a scratching post. (I'm just praying there wasn't a litter box involved.) Given what we've seen of these house guests, having them spayed and neutered might not have been a bad idea, but alas, production missed that opportunity.

Just five more days and the season will be done! It's pretty much all over now anyway. James will likely throw the second HOH to Nicole. Nicole and Paul will have to guess at who said what in the final stage. Luckily for Nicole it is largely a guessing comp as she only really knows one house guest and that's Corey. I think it was day 59 when she finally spoke to Natalie for the first time when she was trying to find new allies after Paulie got in trouble and asked her, "So, where were you born? New Jersey? New York?" Natalie replied, "Venezuela." "Oh." That largely ended Nicole's attempt to get to know other house guests and she slithered back into her corner bed with Corey and gave up on the rest of them. She wouldn't even have reached out to Natalie then, but Corey insisted they needed new allies. "Coreeeeey! I trieeeeed, but it's so harrrrrd!" Just five more days. I can do this. I've made it through 94 days of updates. Just five more and we're done! Yeah!

Thursday, September 15, 2016

Big Brother 18 Live Feed Spoilers and Updates for Thursday 9/15/2016!!!

Yesterday saw the last live show for a week and the eviction of Corey. Apparently the only person surprised by Corey's eviction was Corey who somehow thought James would keep him. I'm not sure why Corey thought that, but it does explain his lack of campaigning.

A while after the show ended they had the first of the three part HOH comp. Paul won that comp. About all we know is that the house guests had to hang from ropes and Nicole claims she didn't know it would swing and when it swung she fell off and James dropped shortly afterwards giving the comp to Paul. James seems to have thrown the comp to Paul and seems to be planning to throw part two to Nicole as he thinks both will take him to the final two.

We've entered the crazy season of BB where whenever two house guests are together and the third one is out of earshot, the two who are together vow undying loyalty and swear on all they hold holy that they'll take the other one to the final two with them if they get the chance. Obviously at least some of these people are lying to each other.

I think anyone would be crazy to take Paul to the final two. He's generally liked by the jury, has won comps, hasn't made many enemies, and has generally played a good game. The only reason someone might take him is if they think the jury thinks he's rich and doesn't need the money. (Michelle said she wouldn't vote for him because he already has a lot of money.) In terms of the game, Paul deserves the win and both James and Nicole likely know that. Would his family's money be enough to take the win from him? Not likely, so if anyone has a choice, Paul is likely out.

I think James might have the toughest decision should he somehow stumble into the win for the final HOH. Paul would almost certainly beat him. Nicole could beat him, but Nicole has enemies on the jury. James also knows however that the girls wanted a girl to win this year. With five girls on the jury and Corey as a likely vote for Nicole taking Nicole would also be risky. James however seems determined to throw this next comp to Nicole and trust both her and Paul to take him to the final two. (Not a bad gamble on his part.)

James is probably the safest person for either Nicole or Paul to take to the final two. While James can make a decent case for the win, he's the least likely to win. His jury management however has been very good. His social game has also been very good. I think James really needed a win towards the end to have a better chance though and so far at least, he hasn't produced.

At this moment I see either Nicole or Paul winning the game. James might upset Nicole and win because of his superior social game, but he really needed a win late in the game to improve his chances. Maybe he'll win parts two and three of the final HOH comp, but right now he seems more inclined to throw part two. I think Paul has to win that third leg of the HOH comp to reach the final two. I just don't see either of the others taking him there.

Wednesday, September 14, 2016

Big Brother 18 Live Feed Spoilers and Updates for 9/14/2016!!!

And the feeds are back! While the feeds were down Victor once again was evicted, Paul won HOH and nominated Nicole and Corey and then the POV was played and Paul won the POV making him the most powerful person in the house.

When the feeds came back up Nicole and Corey had James cornered demanding to know what he's going to do. (At this moment James has the one and only vote to evict, assuming the POV isn't used.) James did his usual hemming and hawing and put the heat on Paul saying he'd do whatever Paul wanted since Paul was keeping him safe this week.

Nicole and Corey then let James go and he headed up to the HOH where he and Paul discussed their options and both agreed Corey had to go. 

Nicole then found her way to the HOH room for a one on one with Paul. Paul assured her she was safe and he wanted James to vote out Corey. He then told Nicole he wanted a final two deal with her and threatened her that if she didn't take it he'd cut off her bun and sell it on E-Bay for $50,000. (Paul might be a tick off on the value of Nicole's bun.) Nicole agrees to the final two deal and they plot how to sell it to James. (Like it takes a lot of plotting to do that. "Hey James, vote out Corey." "Okay.")

Corey then replaced Nicole in the HOH and Paul told him what a beast he was and that he knew he couldn't beat him in the final two comps, so he needed Corey gone. They hug it out and all's good between them. Paul offers to let Nicole and Corey have the HOH room for some privacy on their last night together but Corey says he prefers sleeping downstairs. (They don't really need privacy anyway as we've seen countless times on the feeds.)

Nicole meanwhile is downstairs practicing her eviction speech telling Corey what a great guy he is and she can't wait to see him outside the house then telling James to do what's best for his game. (Knowing that he'll vote out Corey.) By the way, Nicole may have thrown the POV comp to Paul when she saw he was doing well, so he'd get rid of Corey for her. This keeps Corey's blood off her hands. If she'd won POV, James would have had to go up and she'd have to vote one of the two out. It's much easier for her to lose and let Paul/James do the dirty work. 

Nicole and Corey reunite in their bed and Nicole tells Corey everything Paul said so she's not hiding anything from him. Nicole tells Corey she's not taking Paul to the final two, but she's taking James if she gets the chance. Corey approves. Nicole's worried that she won't do well in her final two speech and answering questions. She asks Corey what was her biggest game move? He's stumped. She suggests convincing Natalie and Michelle to put up Paul and Victor might have been her biggest game move. (Yeah, as game moves go, that's not overly impressive since Victor turned right back around and came back into the house.)

And that largely brings us up to speed. At this moment Nicole and Corey are on the block with Corey the clear target. James will stand up on live TV tonight and cast the sole vote to evict and Corey will go bye-bye. Nicole will get all weepy and upset then start operation back stab Paul where she unites with James to get Paul out and get the two vets to the final two. At least one of the two vets will be competing in that final leg of the final three part HOH comp, so they've got a shot at keeping them both together. If both James and Nicole are competing neither will care who wins as they'll each take the other. 

Tonight will find Corey going to the jury, and the first leg of the final HOH comp getting started. This is typically an endurance comp of some sort. Then in a couple of days the second stage of the HOH comp will take place. And then nothing happens for days until the finale a week from tonight.

Tuesday, September 13, 2016

Big Brother 18 Live Feed Spoilers and Updates for Tuesday 9/13/2016!!!

There are no real updates, just a rumor that Paul won HOH and is now safe this week. If true then one of James, Corey, Nicole will be heading home. We know Paul planned to put up Corey and Nicole. If he did, then James would currently have the vote to evict pending the outcome of the POV ceremony. If James retains the right to evict (he or Paul wins POV) then expect Corey to go bye bye. If Corey wins POV then it’s likely goodbye James. If Nicole wins POV, I don’t know which she’d choose. Corey’s her boy toy, but they’ve been kind of moving apart a bit, where James is a vet who dilutes the “no vets” voting strategy. 


With the season winding down the Live Feed Spoiler and Updates crew has managed to once again smuggle our intrepid reporter into the BB house for candid one on one interviews with each of the final four house guests. Up first in the interviewing process is Corey. The unlikely showmance partner of Nicole.

“Corey, can you tell us what you’re feeling right now? Corey? Can you hear me Corey? Corey?”

“Christmas! Harry Potter! My doggie! Harry Potter!”

Perhaps we’ll come back to Corey after his meds have a chance to kick in. Up next is James, the mighty mite of a veteran player who seemingly slept his way to the final four.

“James, can you tell us how you’re feeling at this stage of the game?”

“Well, this ain’t my first rodeo, but I guess I feel lonely right now after Natalie was voted out. She was the love of my life, my right hand girl, the only person in the house I could totally trust.”

“And yet, you wouldn’t listen to her and insisted she ally with Nicole and Corey, an alliance that ultimately got her voted out.”

“I really thought I could trust Nicole and Corey. Heck, they knew this wasn’t my first rodeo, but they took advantage of me. I was wrong. I shouldn’t have trusted them.”

“Speaking of trust, how many alliances were you in this year?”

“Let’s see now. I started out with the Four Vets, then we grew into the Eight Pack, I had final two deals with Nicole, Davonne, and Frank, then when Paulie came into power I joined up with the Executives, I had a final three with Paulie and Corey, then a new final two with Natalie, and now I’m allied with Nicole and Corey and also Paul. So what’s that, something like ten or so? I was also sort of in a girls’ alliance with Natalie, Bridgette, Bronte, and Tiffany for a while, but we never really formalized it.”

“How many house guests weren’t you allied with?”

“I never got the chance to ally with Glenn, he was gone too fast. I don’t think I had an alliance with Jozea either, but I guess they’re the only two I wasn’t allied with at some time.”

“What was your strategy this year?”

“I tried to avoid becoming a target. Lay low, let others get picked off then as I neared the end of the game rise up and play hard to win.”

“And when are you planning to rise up and play hard?”

“I figure another couple of weeks and I should be ready to go.”

“You realize there are only nine days to go?”

“There are? Well, dang! I might have to start playing soon.”

“Did you have a preshow alliance with Nicole?”

“No! Absolutely not! I mean we’d talked about it, but we never really formalized anything. It’s not the first rodeo for either of us. We did agree to share the prize money if either of us won and we promised not to nominate one another or anything like that, but we never had an alliance.”

“Is there anything you’d like to tell your fans?”

“Tell them to tell Natalie that I love her and I promise her that all those women who have restraining orders against me are exaggerating things.”

We then moved back to check in on Corey.

“Corey, can you tell us how you’re feeling at this stage of the game? Corey? Corey, are you okay? Corey?”

“Harry Potter, Harry Potter, Harry Potter.”

We’ll give Corey’s meds a bit longer to take effect. Let’s talk to his showmance partner Nicole.

“Good morning Nicole.”

“Oh my Godddddd! I can’t believe I’m heeeeeeere! This is amazinnnnnnnng!”

“Ah, yes. Could we talk about your relationship with Corey?”

“Coreeeeey! Sure! But we’re just good friends, I’m not sure I’d call us a showmance.”

“That’s not how it looked on the night vision cameras.”

“Night vision cameras? What night vision cameras?”

“There are night vision cameras allowing live feed watchers to see what happens when the lights go out.”

“Oh my Goddddddd! Are you kidding meeeeee?”

“No, there are night vision cameras in the bedrooms so live feed viewers can see everything that goes on even in the dark.”

“Are you saying people could see what we were doing?”

“Well you are both grown adults, so no one’s too shocked.”

“Oh my, Goddddd! Coreeeey! I can’t believe we’re the porn stars of Big Brother! My God! How many times have people downloaded us?”

“Actually none. I’m afraid most people are more bored by what you two do than anything. People are calling your Borey and No Soul. Speaking of Borey, er Corey, we’ve been trying to interview him, but he seems somewhat unfocused. Is there a trick to getting him to open up?”

“Here’s what I do, you start out with your fingers like this and. . . . It’s probably best if I do it for you.”

We’ll consider that interview done and move on to the Paul, the loud, tattooed, former MMA fighter, clothing designer who just lost his best friend in the game.

“Paul, can you tell us how you’re feeling at this stage of the game?”

“BONED! YOUR BOY HAS BEEN BONED, BONED, AND BONED AGAIN! ALL I WANTED WAS FRIENDSHIP AND ALL I GOT WAS BONED!”

“You were allied with James, Michelle and Natalie in a final five alliance. Can you tell us what happened?”

“I GOT BONED!”

“You then were in a final four alliance with Nicole and Corey. Could you tell us what happened?”

“I GOT BONED!”

“Didn’t Natalie warn you that this would happen?”

“YES. I THOUGHT SHE WAS TRYING TO BONE ME THOUGH SO I IGNORED WHAT SHE SAID AND I GOT BONED! YOUR BOY WOULD LOVE TO GO BACK AND RESUME THAT FRIENDSHIP WITH NATALIE, BUT I CAN’T BECAUSE I GOT BONED!”

“What are your plans if you win HOH?”

“I’M GOING TO BONE NICOLE AND COREY!”

We now find Nicole and Corey under the covers in their corner bed in the Tokyo bedroom and Corey seems more responsive so we’ll attempt once more to interview him.

“So Corey, are you ready to talk to us now?”

“Yes.”

“As you know many of the players this year were coached by former players. We know that you knew Clay from last year. Did you receive any coaching from Clay?”

“Yes.”

“What did he tell you to do?”

“Yes.”

“I’m sorry, but what exactly did Clay tell you to do?”

“Yes.”

“Corey?”

“Yes.”

“Can you say anything other than yes?”

“Harry Potter.”

We then gathered all four together for one final question.

“What was the biggest obstacle to your game this year?”

James responded, “I think Nicole, Corey and I all agree that our biggest issue this year was bedsores. It’s hard lying in bed for three full months.”

Paul then added, “GETTING BONED!”

And that concludes our final four interviews for this year. Thanks for tuning in and check back tomorrow when the live feeds resume.